For years, federal regulators deliberately omitted dozens of cabins from Camp Mystic’s flood risk maps, allowing the camp to expand into a flood-prone area that proved deadly when the Guadalupe River flooded. In 2011, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) designated over 30 structures at Camp Mystic as being in a “Special Flood Hazard Area” on Kerr County’s flood map, indicating a 1% chance of a 100-year flood.

Despite this designation, the camp successfully appealed the floodplain status, leading FEMA to remove many of its buildings from the official flood zone in subsequent years—15 structures in 2013, another 15 in 2019 and 2020, mainly at the nearby Cypress Lake site, which was less affected by flooding.

When last week’s catastrophic flood struck, at least 12 structures at Camp Mystic were still within FEMA’s designated flood plain, with several partially submerged. The flood was far more severe than FEMA’s predictions, resulting in the death of at least 27 campers and staff, including the camp’s director, Richard “Dick” Eastland, who died heroically trying to save his young charges.

Camp Mystic, situated in a historically flood-prone area along the Guadalupe River, has long struggled with flooding. Its decision to have some cabins removed from flood maps—likely influenced by property owners seeking to avoid high costs—has been called into question. FEMA warned that future structures or improvements could still be subject to floodplain regulations, but critics argue that the initial map amendments reduced necessary precautions.

Data indicates that much of the Cypress Lake property also faces a 1% annual flood risk, emphasizing the ongoing threat. FEMA described flood maps as “snapshots in time,” meant to establish minimum standards, not precise predictors of flood outcomes. Nonetheless, the camp’s history of overlooked risks contributed to the tragedy, with inspections conducted just days before the floods swept through, leaving many cabins vulnerable.