Should the Milwaukee Bucks Trade Giannis Antetokounmpo? A Strategic Look

One of the most pressing questions heading into the 2025-26 NBA season is whether the Milwaukee Bucks should consider trading superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Recognized as one of the top three players in the league, Antetokounmpo ranks third in the Estimated Plus-Minus prediction metric, trailing only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić.

Despite his talent, the Bucks’ supporting cast is among the weakest in the NBA, and their projected win total of 42.5 for this season reflects low confidence from bettors. The reluctance to trade Antetokounmpo stems from his status as a franchise icon, but recent history suggests that timely superstar trades can ultimately benefit rebuilding teams. For instance, Oklahoma City’s strategic moves in 2019 netted them young stars and multiple draft picks, leading to a Finals appearance in 2025, while the thunder’s past trades of Westbrook and George have laid a foundation for future success.

Conversely, teams that overhaul their rosters with large, so-called “kitchen-sink” deals—trades involving numerous draft picks and players—often see mixed results. Many such trades between 2019 and 2023, despite acquiring huge star talent, have not translated into sustained championship success. The Durant deal in Phoenix, for example, cost a fortune in draft assets and luxury tax, and the team struggled afterward, ultimately trading Durant away after less than three seasons.

These expanded trades, colloquially called the “Gut Tax,” reflect the heavy sacrifices teams make to acquire stars. History warns that giving up multiple first-round picks and young assets can leave a franchise vulnerable in the long term. Successful teams, like Golden State in 2016, secured stars via strategic cap management rather than blockbuster trades, while others have faced injury challenges that diminish the returns of their star acquisitions.

What’s Next for the Bucks?

Milwaukee should consider the lessons from Phoenix’s costly trades. Moving Antetokounmpo before injuries erode his value could maximize trade return. However, the team’s recent moves, including trading away key players and accumulating draft capital, suggest they’re in a difficult position to pivot quickly. If Antetokounmpo requests a trade, the Bucks might have to accept a package featuring multiple unprotected picks and promising young players—possible targets include the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Evan Mobley or the Golden State Warriors’ unprotected future picks.

While the decision to trade the franchise star in his prime is difficult for a small-market team, history shows that well-timed superstar deals can set the stage for future championships—just ask the Thunder or the Celtics. Ultimately, the Bucks must weigh the potential long-term benefits against the risk of holding onto a superstar whose value may decline due to injuries and team performance.