Possible End for Xi Jinping’s Leadership as China Faces Unrest

Xi Jinping’s grip on the Chinese military and the Communist Party appears increasingly unstable, opening the door for potential leadership change. Recent indications, such as Xi skipping this year’s BRICS summit — a key platform he traditionally used to showcase China’s global influence — suggest shifts within the regime. Typically, the summit’s coverage boosts his domestic authority, making his absence notable.

Additional signs include the disappearance of Xi’s wife Peng Liyuan from public view for over two months, and the reassignment of close ally Ma Xingrui from his post as Xinjiang Party Secretary. These developments, along with reports of senior loyalists being replaced or dying under mysterious circumstances, point to a possible internal power struggle similar to the Soviet Union’s unravelling in the late 20th century.

China’s economy is faltering—facing declining growth, capital flight, rising unemployment, and unsustainable debt levels—that may prompt elite leaders to consider a smooth transition away from Xi to prevent chaos. Xi himself resists relinquishing power, underscoring the importance of continued economic pressure from abroad.

Current U.S. policies, including tariffs and sanctions targeting Russia and China’s support for Putin’s war effort, are weakening Xi’s position. A change in leadership might lead to a more reform-minded Chinese government, modeled after Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatic approach post-Mao, potentially aligning China more with global norms and reducing its support for adversarial policies.

To encourage this transition, the U.S. should endorse sanctions targeting Russia, intensify efforts against Chinese espionage, and signal openness to a new Chinese leadership committed to peace, rule of law, and personal freedoms. Using strategic communication, including social media, can influence the Chinese elite and future leaders, emphasizing Xi’s failures and promoting positive change.

All signs point to the eventual decline of Xi Jinping’s era, and Western nations must prepare for significant shifts in China’s political landscape, which will impact global stability and security.