Signs Point to the Possible Fall of Xi Jinping and a Major Shift in China’s Leadership

Recent developments suggest that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, may be nearing the end of his grip on power. Behind the scenes, senior CCP elders, including Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao — whom Xi publicly humiliated at the 20th Party Congress — are now exerting influence. Xi’s health appears to be declining, with speculation that he may retire or assume a ceremonial role soon.

Notably, recent purges and the mysterious deaths of numerous PLA generals loyal to Xi, now replaced by officials aligned with senior CCP elders, highlight a potential power shift. Additionally, the “un-naming” of Xi’s father’s mausoleum—larger than those of Mao or Deng—was an unprecedented act, fueling speculation about Xi’s fading influence.

Xi’s personal security has also been reduced, with reports indicating his protective detail has been halved. His absence from public view for nearly two weeks in late spring, during which foreign dignitaries visited Beijing, further supports the idea of internal instability. At a recent meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Xi appeared visibly tired and distracted, a stark contrast to his usual robust demeanor. State media also began referring to Xi without official titles following his recent conversation with the US President, a departure from previous protocol.

Some of China’s most prestigious universities have even published critical articles about Xi—a move unthinkable before. These signs point toward a major reshuffle of leadership. Reports suggest that Zhang Youxia and other elders have favored Wang Yang, a pragmatic, reform-minded technocrat, as Xi’s successor. Wang supports market reforms, decentralization, and a less confrontational foreign policy.

If this transition occurs smoothly, it could benefit the US and allied democracies profoundly, potentially ending China’s isolation and opening a new era of reform. Conversely, Xi’s departure might also weaken adversarial regimes like Russia, North Korea, and Iran, which are already experiencing setbacks on the global stage.

In conclusion, China appears to be on the cusp of a significant leadership change, with the potential to reshape its future path toward greater openness and reform.