Young New Yorkers Vote Early — Is This a Sign Zohran Mamdani Will Win?

Young Voters Drive High Early Voting Turnout in New York City

Early voting in the NYC mayoral race has concluded, revealing a significant surge among voters under 40, who made up 40% of all ballots cast during the nine-day period from June 14-22. According to election data, roughly 385,000 residents participated early, more than doubling the number seen in the 2021 mayoral primary.

The average age of early voters was 43, with there also being a notable increase in first-time voters—around 22,000—compared to previous elections. This trend appears to favor candidate Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old Queens assemblyman, who polls better with younger demographics. A recent survey indicated he enjoys a 2-1 advantage among voters under 50, although former Governor Andrew Cuomo remains favored among older Democrats.

Supporters of Mamdani, which include many younger Democratic Socialists, have demonstrated a strong ground game, encouraging high youth turnout. During the last day alone, about 80,000 ballots were submitted, reflecting the campaign’s effective mobilization efforts.

Voters participate in early voting at John Jay High School.
Roughly 385,000 New Yorkers voted early during the primary.

Meanwhile, Cuomo’s campaign faces criticism for a perceived lack of coordination in get-out-the-vote efforts. Sources suggest that his internal polling shows a narrow lead of about 6-7 points, with worries that insufficient organization could cost him the election. Some insiders also allege that Cuomo’s campaign only recently began its field operations, which could be too late to make a difference.

Critics have called Cuomo’s recent campaign efforts one of the weakest they’ve seen, heavily reliant on donations from wealthy supporters rather than robust grassroots mobilization. Nonetheless, Cuomo’s spokesperson counters that ongoing internal polls still show him leading comfortably, emphasizing his historical voter support from previous campaigns.