Donald Trump speaks along the southern border in Sierra Vista, Ariz., August 22, 2024.Evan Vucci/AP

Embedded in Donald Trump’s recent “Big, Beautiful” spending bill—passed last month in the House and containing substantial Medicaid cuts—is a provision allocating $46.5 billion for the construction of his much-anticipated border wall with Mexico. The White House claims this funding will create an additional 701 miles of primary barriers and 900 miles of river barriers, but past efforts during Trump’s first term suggest these figures are overly optimistic.

During his 2016 campaign, Trump pledged to build 1,000 miles of border wall costing between $8 and $12 billion, promising Mexico would foot the bill. In his first term, he asked Congress for $5.7 billion but only received $1.3 billion; he then used emergency powers to reallocate funds, which ballooned costs to around $15 billion for just 47 miles of new barriers. An October 2020 court ruling declared his emergency fund transfers unlawful. As before, Mexico did not fund the project.

The recent bill, narrowly passing the House with a 215-214 vote, drew Republican criticism—Senator Rand Paul called for reduced spending on the wall. The Congressional Budget Office estimates this bill will add $2.8 trillion to the national deficit over a decade.

The bill also faces opposition for its Medicaid cuts, which could leave over 7 million without coverage and increase deaths by more than 16,000 annually, according to health experts. Polls indicate widespread public disapproval, with a majority opposing the spending, particularly the $50 billion allocated for the border wall. Nevertheless, the administration appears determined to proceed with its plans, regardless of public opinion or fiscal concerns.