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Record-Low Murder Rates Expected in the U.S. This Year

The United States is on track to record its lowest murder rate ever in 2025, a significant decline from the spike experienced during the early days of the pandemic. Recent data indicates that homicides decreased sharply across the country in 2023 and 2024, and the downward trend persists into 2025, according to crime analyst Jeff Asher. He suggests there’s a strong chance that the national murder rate could fall below 4.45 per 100,000 residents this year, surpassing the low rates recorded in 2014 and matching those from 1962, when the FBI first began tracking such data.

The nationwide decline is consistent across most cities, though the reasons remain unclear. Criminologists, including Asher, speculate that the drop correlates with the reopening of local governments and increased investment in jobs, infrastructure, and violence prevention following the pandemic lockdowns. Interestingly, the reduction in homicides does not appear to be linked to fewer guns—firearms remain widely accessible—or to an increase in police presence, as many cities now have fewer officers than before the pandemic.

Contradictory Trends in Police Violence

Meanwhile, police-involved shootings have continued to rise, with at least 1,226 people shot and killed by officers in 2024—an 18% increase over 2019, based on analysis from The New York Times and other sources. This trend isn’t uniform; states with progressive reforms after George Floyd’s murder saw slight decreases in police killings, while states with no reforms experienced substantial increases. Experts suggest that protests prompted some states to fund more aggressive policing, contributing to these disparities.

The federal government appears indifferent to the rise in police homicides. In April, the President signed an executive order aimed at empowering law enforcement, and investigations into departments accused of excessive force have been scaled back. Critics point out that the data tells a different story: while community violence decreases, police violence continues to escalate in certain areas.

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